Jumbo mortgage loan rates put damper on refinancing

Although many financial institutions are offering interest rates at historic lows, one area of the market – jumbo loans – still is hovering around 7 percent, leading some homeowners to rethink their refinancing plans.  Rates on jumbo loans tend to be higher because lenders are having difficulty selling them on the secondary market.   Because jumbo loans typically carry a higher mortgage interest rate than a conforming loan, it can lead to higher monthly payments, which can negatively impact affordability for households in California.

Every little bit helps….

On October 3, 2008, President Bush signed into law the “Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008.”  A less known aspect of this bill extended tax credits for energy efficient home improvements (windows, doors, roofs, insulation, HVAC, and water heaters). Tax credits for these residential products, which had expired at the end of 2007, will now be available for improvements made during 2009. However, improvements made during 2008 are not eligible for a tax credit.

Read more:

http://energystar.custhelp.com/cgi-bin/energystar.cfg/php/enduser/std_adp.php?p_faqid=3154&p_created=1183996812

Bay Area Market Update (10/20/08)

So what has this week’s rollercoaster ride on Wall Street meant for our local housing market?  I am pleased to report that some offices are having near-normal new pending sales activity.  They higher-end communities seem to be the most lethargic during the wild Wall Street ride, as you’d expect.  The Santa Rosa office, with the most REO’s in our region, has hit 98% of their October projected open units prior to Oct 15th.   Let’s take a look…

 

• East Bay— CB’s Berkeley office is again reporting low inventory in Albany, Berkeley, Kensington and El Cerrito which consistently have less than two months supply.  Other nearby markets are experiencing a heavy influx of bank-owned sales with the office reporting 70% of its sales this month have been REOs.  Danville’s REO surge from last week may have been an anomaly as sales slowed dramatically this week.  The high-end is also seeing dramatic lulls with inventory in Alamo at 13 months and in Blackhawk and 14 months.  Fremont continues to see some sales highs thanks to the large number of REOs.   Pleasanton and Orinda saw very little change this week, both noting that buyers are cautious, most glued to their televisions and the latest news on Wall Street.  Agents continue to guide and educate their clients on the opportunities available in today’s market and working with buyers that desire want to be into their new homes by the holidays.
• Monterey County—Listing inventory and sales activity have been steady.  We had two REOs this week—both with multiple offers.  For the luxury market, we have 22 properties pending in the MLS above $1.5 million on the Monterey Peninsula.  Of those, 14 properties are below $2.5 million and eight are $2.5 to $6.8 million. 
• North Bay—CB’s Greenbrae office reports decreasing listing inventory and decreasing sales activity though they did have a Larkspur listing that was a major fixer upper that was listed in the high sevens and had 22 offers.  It went for over $1 million.  The San Rafael office noted that it listed a Novato house this week for $359,000—a price unheard of for Marin County.  Even with these types of values, some buyers are leery to commit.  Sonoma County continues to see increased activity in the bank-owned arena though Santa Rosa saw an increase in activity in the $900,000 to $1 million market this week (a market that has been asleep at the wheel for much of the year).
• Peninsula—Half Moon Bay witnessed the results of Wall Street’s volatility this week as two buyers canceled contracts out of fear that their reserves were disappearing.  Woodside is reporting that there are a lot of great deals right now with the high-end quiet, and some sellers are motivated. A $2.7M off-market sale in Menlo Park, plus several sales in Burlingame with multiple offers over $1M, all cash, reminds us that Buyers are out there for the right deals. The rest of the Peninsula seems to be seeing a lot of interested buyers who are entering the market, though waiting to see what comes of the economy.  Perhaps they are measuring the market so they are prepared to jump in and buy at the first sign that consumer confidence is rising. 
• San Francisco—San Francisco saw a similar week to that of the Peninsula with buyers waiting to see what comes of Wall Street and the government’s new plan.  The Market Street office also saw two deals fall through as buyers feared what was happening with the economy, although neither were having issues with securing funding.  While we’ve noted that a few transactions have cancelled, it’s equally important to note that more than 27 new escrows were opened in CB’s San Francisco offices during this volatile Wall Street week.
• Santa Cruz County—Listing inventory is steady and sales activity seems to be decreasing.  Overall YTD through September, units are down in Santa Cruz County 12-15% from 2007.  Over 20% of the sales in the county have occurred in the Watsonville area (south county) and 87% are under $1 million.  The upper end of the market has been pretty slow this year.  In the county, YTD through September, there have been 20 sales over $2 million representing 1.8% of the closed inventory.  The lower-end, like most regions, continues to drive the market.  Lending continues to be an obstacle with strict guidelines, less money to loan and unyielding appraisals.
• Silicon Valley—There are two types of buyers out there right now—those who see this as an opportune time and are acting on it and those who have adopted the wait and see philosophy and are afraid to act.  For the most part, our Silicon Valley offices are reporting that buyer interest has slowed with floor calls and open house activity decreasing.  However, our San Jose Main office disagrees noting that buyer activity at open houses this week actually increased.  The market that seems to be fairing the best is the entry level and continued success lies in the bank-owned arena where REO properties continue to generate multiple offers.  There are two types of clients who are seeing success in today’s market (the rest languish so clients of all regions take note):
  • Buyers who see real estate as a long-term investment and this market, in particular, as an opportunity and are acting on it
  • Sellers who price their home right, stage it and are motivated
• South County—With all of the drama on Wall Street, things have slowed quite a bit.  Activity has slowed with the exception of the bank-owned market where well-priced REOs are often selling quickly, with multiple offers.  The luxury market in South County seems to be languishing with the exception of bank-owned properties.  An Agent in the Morgan Hill office just sold a home that was listed earlier this year for $1.1 million—the final purchase price was $750,000 (as a short sale).

 

That’s our market in a nutshell.  Overall, things seem to be steady.  Bank owned properties continue to drive much of our activity. The higher end properties are more sensitive to pricing than they have been in several years. But make no bones about it, homes are selling today, and not a week goes by without several reports of multiple offers.

Another week of financial unrest (10/13/08)

Does it feel like the movie Groundhog Day?  Following the second straight week of economic unrest, watching coverage from the trading floors on Wall Street resembled an endless video loop, replaying the same performance day after day. The U.S. stock market endured its worst five-day performance since 1932 on fears of a severe economic downturn.  Two days later (on Thursday), stocks plunged in the final hour of trading, sending the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 675 points or more than 7% to its lowest level in five years.  In response to this news, overnight stocks plunged in Europe and Asia, as well.  Most notably, Japan’s Nikkei fell more than 10 percent Friday.

 

We’re all affected by this, whether or not we have 401k’s and stock portfolios suffering large losses.  The business owner who may be completely detached from the stock market personally, and fortunate enough to not be in need of a commercial loan to make payroll, is still affected by his or her customers who are experiencing actual losses.  Many consumers were afraid to open their third quarter 401K statements as they arrived this week in the mail.  Others are making countless calls to their financial advisors in hopes of a miracle or a quick fix to stop the decline.  Still others are choosing to ignore it with the “ignorance is bliss” philosophy.  The bottom line is, we’re all in this together.

 

What I am thankful for is that I am not hearing very many instances of our customers who are qualified for loans by today’s standards not being able to get loans.  I am speaking regularly with my mortgage contacts over the subject, and we just aren’t seeing situations where loans are being pulled or denied unreasonably at the last minute. I have heard from some agents that they’ve dealt with a lender that had a buyer qualified for 25% down, and then changed the requirement to 30%.  This is by far the exception rather than the rule.  To date, most loans opened in the past 30 days are funding as they were packaged.  Naturally, jumbo loan resources are fewer today, but there is enough money out there at very reasonable rates to satisfy the current demand.

 

Last week’s passing of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 should help to alleviate some strain as one of the goals of the act is to unfreeze the credit markets to encourage intra-bank lending.  Once we start to see this, banks should begin to lessen their stringent requirements and consumers should be able to once again see more resources for mortgages, auto, and school loans.

 

Historically speaking, during times of economic crisis consumers tend to invest their money in tangible assets, like real estate.  We expect that this may be the case in the months ahead as consumers look to buy homes for all of the lifestyle reasons that prompt people to buy (i.e. marriage, births, divorce, deaths, retirement, job relocation, etc.) but also with a consideration of the historic long-term appreciation that makes homeownership a valuable investment over time.

 

Earlier this week, Bloomberg.com reported, “Rates are low enough that some consumers stung by losses in their portfolios may want to pull the trigger on a purchase or refinance if they can lower their payments.”

 

Indicative of this fact, the article went on to report, “A nationwide survey of consumer credit rates showed 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 5.8 percent yesterday, according to Bankrate.com.  Rates were 6.26 percent on August 29 and also July 31, in the same survey.  Home-loan applications rose 2.2 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association and purchases were at a six-year low the previous week.”

 

We certainly are in a time of uncertainty.  But while many sit glued to CNN and others fret over their investment portfolios, the housing market continues to labor on in the Bay Area.  Because the beautiful thing about real estate is that it’s not just an investment—though it may be one of the most important investments a consumer will make in his/her lifetime.  Your home is where you raise your family and plant your roots.  It’s where you hang your hat and make memories to last a lifetime.

Bay Area Market Update (10/7/08)

With the Economic Stabilization Act now passed, let’s take a look at last week in real estate:

 

-         East Bay—Castro Valley—which for weeks has been our bright spot of activity—saw a bit of a slowdown this week due to the concerns on Wall Street.  We still have plenty of deals thanks to REOs but buyers are nervous.   It seems buyers really need the counsel of their real estate Agents right now so they may navigate these murky waters.  Our Danville office is reporting quite the contrary, however, noting that business in the San Ramon Valley is steady and that deals are coming together.  Buyers seem to be most active in the REO arena, as they search for what they believe to be the best deals.  Please do keep in mind that not all bank-owned properties are created equal and not all are guaranteed deals.  Overall, the East Bay continues to thrive thanks to REOs and the remainder of the markets are quiet.  We should see those markets pick up as we continue to eliminate our REO inventory.

-         Monterey County—CB’s Monterey County offices are noting some positive news, even in the wake of a tumultuous week on Wall Street,  noting “Even though this week has been a tumultuous one in the financial world nationally, it amazes me that our Sales Associates are still busy writing offers throughout the week.”

-         North Bay—Despite the economic hardships of the week, our North Bay offices reporting that things seem to be moving pretty steadily.  Our Greenbrae office noted, “The next few weeks look promising for buyers and sellers.”  Our San Rafael office noted that “we are seeing more all cash buyers coming into the market.”  Our Sonoma County offices continue to enjoy a lot of activity thanks to bank-owned properties and our Petaluma office is noting that short sales are becoming increasingly easier to deal with as negotiating with banks becomes more positive.

-         Peninsula—People seem to be unsure during these uncertain economic times but savvy buyers are contacting their Agents and many feel now is the perfect time to make an offer.  We are starting to see more upper-end listings come on the market which is a good thing as our upper-tier has been plagued by low inventory.  Half Moon Bay is reporting that listings are up at the highest level in several years and at the same time there are at least six distressed properties on the market.  According to our Half Moon Bay Manager, “This is the best time to buy on the coast in years.”  Our Menlo Park El Camino office called this market “A tale of two buyers…Confident and not confident.”  It’s business as usual for those who have confidence and those who don’t may miss out on one of the best buyer’s markets in generations.

-         San Francisco—My own office is seeing more listings and navigating through more obstacles in transactions.  CB’s Market Street office noted that some buyers backed off this week due to the issues in the finance sector but now that things have worked themselves out we expect them to return.  Our Van Ness office noted that we remain on a reasonable pace for the current climate with five out of nine deals this week under $900,000 and one large sale for the week.

-         Silicon Valley—Consumer confidence seemed to be hindered this week as many of our Silicon Valley consumers awaited news of today’s act.  In doing so, this week floor calls slowed a bit as did open house activity.  But I believe now that we can all get off the couch and away from our TVs (awaiting the act’s approval), we can get back to work and we’ll start to see more deals closing. 

 

Overall I believe the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 puts us on the right track.  No, it isn’t an overnight answer,  but I believe the efforts of the new legislation point us in the right direction and place us on the right path towards stability, and eventually long-term economic growth.

 

The government’s resolve to take action that is focused on fixing the credit crisis is to be commended, particularly because these major moves to add greater liquidity to the market will have a beneficial effect on homebuyers/sellers and the real estate industry as well. Keep in mind that housing represents 20 percent of our GDP, and as such it is a critical piece of our national economy. 

 

 It seems nothing in the financial markets is very predictable in the short-run any more, but next week should seem a bit more stable and calm than last.  Until next week…

Economic Stabilization Act of 2008

Second time was certainly a charm!  With a vote of 263 to 171, the House passed the $700 billion Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008.  The Senate had approved the same bill Wednesday night by a vote of 74-25.  Soon after, the President signed the bill, officially passing the far-reaching legislation.

 

I know the question we are all asking ourselves right now is how is this going to affect all of us.  How will it affect our retirements?  How will it affect the mortgage crisis?  How will it affect our portfolios?  The answers to these and other questions will only be answered over time but what I can tell you is that the legislation is a critical step toward stabilizing our markets.  The main goals of the act are to:

 

-         Shine a new light of scrutiny and accountability on Wall Street including a curb on executive pay for companies selling assets or buying insurance from Uncle Sam. For example, any bonus or incentive paid to a senior executive officer for targets met would have to be repaid if it’s later proven that earnings or profit statements were inaccurate.  The bill also underlines the Securities and Exchange Commission’s power to change accounting rules on how banks and Wall Street firms value securities, and directs the agency to study the issue.  Some observers argue that tight accounting rules are a major reason for the credit crisis in the first place. Others contend that changing the so-called mark-to-market rules will just bury problems lurking beneath the surface and could further shake investor confidence in the already battered financial sector.

-         Let financial institutions sell to the government their troubled assets, mostly mortgage related which would allow the Treasury access to the $700 billion in stages, with $250 billion being made available immediately.

-         Provisions that support taxpayers including one that would direct the President to propose a bill requiring the financial industry to reimburse taxpayers for any net losses from the program after five years. And the Treasury would be allowed to take ownership stakes in participating companies.

-         The bill would set up two oversight committees.  A Financial Stability Board would include the Federal Reserve chairman, the Securities and Exchange Commission chairman, the Federal Home Finance Agency director, the Housing and Urban Development secretary and the Treasury secretary.  A congressional oversight panel, to which the Financial Stability Board would report, would have five members appointed by House and Senate leadership from both parties.

-         The bill calls on federal agencies to encourage loan servicers to modify mortgages by a number of means – including reducing the principal or interest rate. It also extends a temporary provision that exempts from federal income tax any debt forgiven by a bank to a borrower in a foreclosure.

-         Provide tax breaks for the middle class including three key tax elements.  It would extend a number of renewable energy tax breaks for individuals and businesses, including a deduction for the purchase of solar panels.  The legislation would also continue a host of other expiring tax breaks. Among them: the research and development credit for businesses and the credit that allows individuals to deduct state and local sales taxes on their federal returns.  In addition, the bill includes relief for another year from the Alternative Minimum Tax, without which millions of Americans would have to pay the so-called “income tax for the wealthy.”

 

So how long will we take for this to be seen on the proverbial Main Street?  According to some analysts, it will take several weeks for us to see credit unfreeze but we should see some almost immediate benefits on Wall Street. It will be interesting to watch their reaction . We’re all anxious for some stability after a really wild week in the markets. President Bush also deliberately noted today that it will take “some time for this legislation to have a full impact on the economy.” 

 

I agree with NAR’s stance that we are gratified that the government recognized the importance of passing the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008.  The health of the nation’s housing market is critical to the financial well being of every household in the country and that, of course, is front and center here in California.  I believe the legislation will help restore the liquidity in the mortgage market, which will stabilize the housing market and protect home owners.  People have been, and will be debating for a very long time, the specific causes, who’s to blame, who should be paying the price – but ultimately we needed quick action in the credit markets in what was quickly becoming a severe global financial crisis.

Bay Area Market Update (9/29/08)

With all the talk about the $700B bail-out of the financial markets, I leave the commentary to the pundits.   While we may be in a “wait-and-see” mode when it comes to the financial arena, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:

 

• East Bay—Busy, busy, busy were the open houses in the East Bay.  The CB Danville office reports sales picking up for properties that aren’t bank owned.  The same is the case in Fremont, though REOs are still scorching there.  At an open house in Livermore, an Agent wrote an offer on the spot.  The CB Oakland-Piedmont office says that buyers nervous about the financial market, are offering less than asking price in multiple-offer situations.  Nerves were also to blame for two offers canceled at the Berkeley office.  But overall, CB’s East Bay offices report that buyers are still out there looking.  Desirable listings are getting lots of visitors. Buyers are on the move to find the right homes and the market remains active.
• Monterey County—This seems to be an area where buyers are really taking a step back to consider the financial market before moving forward.  Several buyers there were considering making offers, but have put things on hold for now.  There have also been a few requests from buyers already in escrow to reduce prices from what was already agreed to in the purchase contract.  But overall, things remain steady and 14 offers were ratified.
• North Bay—It’s not a surprise that the Greenbrae office reports that buyers fear not being able to get a loan, paying too much for property, or trying to come to terms with a loss of equity.  But the San Rafael office reports that a home in Petaluma they listed for $319,000, had eight offers and sold over asking price just two days after it was listed in MLS—a sign that smart buyers know a good opportunity when they see it.  CB’s Santa Rosa office reports that the market below $500,000 has increased in activity, almost doubling the open escrows for the week.  Activity is also increasing over the $1.5 million range in Southern Marin. Our Mill Valley office has put three of their listings between $1.5M and $2.6M into contract this past week.  The Sebastopol office says “cash is king” when it comes to  REOs, as all accepted cash offers were not the highest.  And though inventory has slowed in the Petaluma office, open escrows continue to be strong.
• Peninsula—The key words on the Peninsula are “reasonably priced.”  That’s what the Burlingame office attributed to a house in Hillsborough selling in 24 hours, and the Half Moon Bay office says one of their listings had two offers after the seller reduced the asking price.  The Redwood City/San Carlos office reports having more inventory coming on the market—all more realistically priced.  Though buyers there are taking their time, once they find the right property, they move quickly.  Open houses were busy in Palo Alto and Menlo Park, where the El Camino office reports offers contingent on selling an home becoming more common.
• San Francisco—Lenders seem to be causing some hiccups for some transactions in the City by the Bay.  CB’s Lombard office says that most deals are being sold very close to asking price and about one deal a week has numerous offers and sells over asking.  But skittish lenders are causing more 11^th hour problems and appraisals are becoming more of an issue.  The Noriega office also reports new obstacles when it comes to loans.  Overall, inventory is growing in the City, and the Market Street office says it is seeing great attendance at open houses for well priced listings.
• Santa Cruz County—Inventory levels are starting to drop slightly in the county and our offices report sales in July and August have exceeded those of 2007.  Much of those have been REOs, with about half the sales under the $500,000 price point.  But, one Agent sold his $5 million listing to a cash buyer and closed in 21 days, and has other cash buyers making offers in the $3 million-plus market.
• Silicon Valley—This area continues to be a little bit of a mixed bag.  The Cupertino De Anza office is reporting an increase in pending properties, which are mostly in the low-end or under-priced.  Those are the only kind of deals the San Jose Almaden office says buyers are willing to pull the trigger on.  But an open house in Sunnyvale has had an excess of 175 people on recent weekend openings, and open houses and floor calls are still keeping the San Jose Willow Glen office busy.  REOs are still the hot ticket, but non-bank owned properties are also selling well.
• South County—REOs are still in demand in South County, especially in Salinas, Watsonville and Hollister.  Activity on that front is booming and the Hollister office reports multiple offers on many bank owned properties.

It’s true that what happens on Wall Street affects Main Street, and in our case Oak Lane and Maple Drive.  But we all know real estate is one of the best investments one can make.   Even Donald Trump told Larry King this week, “it’s an unbelievable time to buy a house…go out and make a deal!”

Ugly MLS Pic of the Day

When I first saw that this agent include 99 pictures in their listings, I was impressed.   That is, until I started looking at the pics.   Is it really necessary to include pics of outlets and water heaters (also included were light switches, and other inconsequential items that are a waste of download time).

Bay Area Market Update (9/22/08)

It’s been a bumpy week, so let’s take a look at what’s happening in Bay Area real estate:

 

• East Bay—Berkeley continues to struggle with low inventory in some of its core markets including Berkeley, Albany, Kensington and El Cerrito.  Just to give you an idea, there was a mob scene at a new Berkeley listing the other day despite the fact that it was a 60-step walk-up to the door and there were two football games playing and a street fair down the street.  Castro Valley remains a hot spot for the first time home buyer with the market sizzling in the $275,000 to $350,000 range.  Fremont is reporting that REOs continue to drive much of its market and CB’s Livermore office noted that of the seven new pending sales this week, five were REOs and four of those five were at or below $215,000—these are prices we haven’t seen in years, folks.  Lamorinda, which hasn’t been quite as affected by REOs is reporting that the market remains steady, though Agents who have had trouble putting deals together due to financing issues, are finally starting to see success—a good sign (hopefully) of things to come.
• Monterey County—The market remained steady this week with a total of 17 ratified offers. 
• North Bay—Marin County, according to CB’s Greenbrae office, seemed to be impacted by the news on Wall Street.  Buyers in this market were a bit skittish this week as they watched things unfold on the nightly news.  Having said that, Agents were still quite busy with activity and searches so we’ll wait to see if those housing searches translate into ratified sales over the next several weeks.  CB’s San Rafael office is noting that some condos in San Rafael are listed at an all time low of $125,000 and Novato is seeing an increase in activity in the $400,000-500,000 price point.  Our Southern Marin office reported a well-priced waterfront Larkspur listing had four offers in the first weekend.  Sonoma County sales continue to thrive thanks to REOs.  Petaluma reported this week that four out of the six multiple-offer sales had 10 or more multiple offers.  Santa Rosa reports that the under $500,000 market is moving quickly with anything above (typically) sitting. 
• Peninsula—News on the coast is bright!  CB’s Half Moon Bay office reported that listings are up 40% this week, the largest increase in listings in several years.  Overall the Peninsula seems to be enjoying a pick-up in the market this week, largely due to an increase in new inventory.  Menlo Park Santa Cruz Avenue is reporting that new listings hit last week and more are to come; buyers, however, seem to be playing the wait and see game.  Our Redwood City/San Carlos office reported that buyers are looking but aren’t quite ready to commit. 
• San Francisco—Lots of new inventory in the City!  The well priced listings are going quickly—some with multiple offers—as evidenced by our Market Street office’s news that all but one property this week received three or more offers.  Our Lombard office noted that San Francisco is at a good inventory balance right now which creates a positive environment for both buyers and sellers.  The Van Ness office is reporting that things are picking up (as expected after the Labor Day holiday) in all price ranges. 
• Silicon Valley—Things are looking pretty bright for Silicon Valley real estate.  Cupertino DeAnza notes that “things are picking up and there is a lot of optimism.”  Los Altos First Street reports that buyers are still lining up for a few select properties.  We had one very nicely redone and staged Cupertino townhome listed at $588,000.  The listing had 14 offers and sold in the mid $600,000s.  Los Altos San Antonio reports that we are seeing more floor time activity including a walk-in that translated into a $3 million listing and a floor call on a $1.5 million listing.  While the news throughout Silicon Valley seems to be good, San Jose Almaden did report that the Wall Street news was ruffling quite a few feathers and was causing concern for some.  We’ll have to watch as this plays out over the next few weeks and I would once again caution would be buyers that despite the economic hardships that our nation is enduring right now, real estate remains one of the strongest investments that you can put your dollar towards. 
• South County—The market seems to be relatively stable, driven largely by REOs.  We saw a limited number of multiple offers this week, almost all were on REO properties.

Okay, so in looking at it, yes, the nation’s economic news did nothing to help our wallets this week.  Some are still sobbing over their investment portfolios.  But as you can see, real estate has remained pretty stable in the face of the negative news on Wall Street.  Real estate values don’t ever reset to zero like you are seeing in some of the equities markets right now.  There is only so much desirable land in our metropolitan areas, and as a result, real estate has always been more resilient than most other financial investments.  Overall it appears buyers are starting to get the idea that it may just be time to get into the housing market and sitting on the sidelines may cost them plenty—in terms of higher prices, higher interest rates and less inventory. 

 

A whole lotta shakin’ going on!

It’s been referred to as “Nightmare on Wall Street.”  In the past two weeks, the government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch sold itself to Bank of America.  If that weren’t enough, the Federal Reserve announced late Tuesday night that it was loaning $85 billion to American International Group (AIG).

 

Our nation’s financial system is in the midst of a massive shakeup, caused largely in part by this decade’s housing correction.  The housing correction has occurred largely because speculative investors as well as marginal borrowers were purchasing homes with unreal loans as fast as production builders could complete them.  If you are living or working in an area that hasn’t had land available for substantial housing development in years, then you haven’t seen much of this in your local market. The higher-end communities around San Francisco that have showed the most resiliency to price declines have had extremely low levels of new home construction for decades.  But overall, between 2002 and 2006, household borrowing grew at an average annual rate of 11%, far outpacing overall economic growth.  Borrowing by financial institutions grew by a 10% annualized rate.  Now many of those borrowers can’t pay back the loans, a problem that is exacerbated by the decline in housing prices in a majority of markets.  They need to reduce their dependence on borrowed money, a painful and drawn-out process that can choke off credit and economic growth.

 

According to the Wall Street Journal this week, “At least three things need to happen to bring the deleveraging process to an end, and they’re hard to do at once. Financial institutions and others need to fess up to their mistakes by selling or writing down the value of distressed assets they bought with borrowed money. They need to pay off debt. Finally, they need to rebuild their capital cushions, which have been eroded by losses on those distressed assets.”

 

Only time will tell how and when this shakeup will correct itself.  The recent figures released by DataQuick (http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080918.aspx) this week are a hopeful sign, despite the negative news they unveil.  Among the highlights:

 

• “The pace of Bay Area home sales reversed its July uptick and dropped again last month, marking a return to the long-running waiting game that many potential buyers and sellers have been playing for more than a year.”
• “A total of 7,232 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county Bay Area in August. That was down 4.7 percent from 7,586 in July, and down 0.9 percent from 7,299 in August 2007, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.”
• “Last month’s sales total was the second-lowest for an August, behind 6,688 sales in August 1992, in MDA DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988. An “average” August had 10,031 sales, while the peak August in 2004 had 13,940.”
• “At the county level, foreclosure sales ranged from 8.6 percent of resales in San Francisco to 61.3 percent in Solano County. In the Bay Area’s other seven counties, August foreclosure sales were as follows: Contra Costa, 54.4 percent; Marin, 13.5 percent; Napa, 39 percent; Santa Clara, 24.7 percent; San Mateo, 16.6 percent; Sonoma, 41.6 percent.”
• “The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area last month was $447,000, down 4.9 percent from $470,000 in July and down a record 31.8 percent from $655,000 in August 2007, according to MDA DataQuick.”
• “Last month’s median stood at the lowest point since January 2004, when it was $440,000. The median peaked at $665,000 in June, July and August of 2007.”

Waiting for the bright spot?  Keep reading.  There’s no question, the result of foreclosures have drastically hindered our median sales price in many of our markets.  And for those sellers who are not under duress and are just looking to sell, they are forced to lower their prices dramatically just to compete. 

 

But we knew that the housing correction posed the biggest risk to our economy and that our economy and our markets would not recover until the bulk of the housing correction was behind us.  The good news is that we are in the midst of depleting much of our distressed inventory.  With stats like 61.3% of sales in Solano County being foreclosure sales, 54.4% in Contra Costa and 41.6% in Sonoma County, we are starting to push through that negatively impacted inventory.  And once we do, we will start to see a market rebound.  No, it won’t happen overnight.  But as it does, we will see first a leveling off and then, ultimately, a positive increase in market conditions.